Even as the UK celebrates a record month for electric vehicle sales, critics are raising alarms about controversial “flexibilities” in the government’s ZEV mandate, warning that the core policy driving the green transition has been significantly watered down. This has led to a situation where impressive sales figures may not translate into the ambitious carbon reduction goals originally intended.
The ZEV mandate requires automakers to meet a headline target of 28% EV market share this year. The current performance of 22.1% suggests a significant shortfall. However, in April, the government made the mandate’s compliance mechanisms more generous. These flexibilities allow carmakers to earn credits in other ways, such as by improving the emissions of their petrol and diesel cars, thus reducing the absolute number of EVs they must sell.
This decision was met with immediate concern from environmental experts. The UK’s official Climate Change Committee issued a stark warning that these concessions were “likely to lead to higher carbon emissions,” directly contradicting the policy’s primary objective. The move was seen as a capitulation to industry lobbying at the expense of climate ambition.
A thinktank, New Automotive, has since estimated that the true, effective target for battery car sales is now below 22% once these loopholes are factored in. This suggests that the industry may already be close to meeting its revised, weaker obligation, which takes the pressure off to accelerate the transition further in the remaining months of the year.
Therefore, the September sales boom, while positive, exists within a compromised policy framework. The government can celebrate the headline sales numbers driven by subsidies, while the auto industry benefits from relaxed targets. However, critics argue this creates a false sense of progress, masking a reality where the UK’s path to decarbonizing transport has been made less stringent and potentially less effective.